{"id":8793,"date":"2018-01-14T04:46:33","date_gmt":"2018-01-14T03:46:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/wissen\/financial-forecasts-2018-what-to-do-if-you-dont-have-a-crystal-ball-to-hand\/"},"modified":"2018-01-14T04:46:33","modified_gmt":"2018-01-14T03:46:33","slug":"financial-forecasts-2018-what-to-do-if-you-dont-have-a-crystal-ball-to-hand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/en\/wissen\/financial-forecasts-2018-what-to-do-if-you-dont-have-a-crystal-ball-to-hand\/","title":{"rendered":"Financial forecasts 2018.\nWhat to do if you don’t have a crystal ball to hand"},"content":{"rendered":"Lesedauer<\/span> 3<\/span> Minuten<\/span><\/span>

Every year, we are eager to see what the financial market has in store. Trade journals and expert portals are full of trends and forecasts.
\nIt would be nice if it were so easy to look into the future.
\nPast experience shows that forecasts are almost certainly wrong.
\nSo what can you do if you don’t actually know anything? <\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Many people still make resolutions to do more for their own finances in the coming year.
\nIn principle, this is always a good idea.
\nThe question of smart investment opportunities quickly arises and so it is not surprising that you will find a multitude of opinions, expert advice and visions for the future without having to search for long.
\nExpectations are high and the idea of making a profit is naturally tempting.
\nHowever, as with New Year’s resolutions, things usually turn out differently than expected on the financial market. <\/span><\/p>\n

Many forecasts turn out to be inaccurate in retrospect.
\nSome may be lucky.
\nHowever, the question arises: how useful are forecasts for one year?
\nCan useful recommendations for action be derived from them?
\nThe fact remains: We don’t know anything for sure. <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A look back<\/strong><\/p>\n

2017 turned out better than expected.
\nWhile the mood on the financial market was still rather critical at the end of 2016 and forecasts were quite cautious, last year exceeded many expectations.
\nWe also asked on facebook how the year went financially and, lo and behold, for the majority of 62% it was better than expected.
\nThis does not mean anything for 2018 and does not represent a trend.
\nAll it really shows is that the forecasts have once again (fortunately) not come true. <\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

So, what to do in the upcoming 2018<\/strong><\/p>\n

Compared to last year, the tenor of forecasts and opinions is currently more optimistic.
\nHowever, we have already said that this does not necessarily mean anything.
\nAfter all, perhaps the current confidence is just the answer to a better-than-expected 2017.
\nI know that I don’t know anything, or at least that I don’t know everything exactly, still applies. <\/span><\/p>\n

The first question is: why do you want to change your investments (in the short term)?
\nInstead of relying on forecasts for a single calendar year, as a successful investor you should think long-term anyway and not “gamble” on short-term developments. <\/span><\/p>\n

Observe which developments are likely to happen: This refers to macro developments such as interest rate trends and economic developments.
\nCheck whether your personal, long-term asset allocation matches these possible developments.
\nIf yes: stick to it, if no: make adjustments. <\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

No panic, no fear of missing out<\/strong><\/p>\n

A long-term view also saves us from short-term scaremongering and investment stress.
\nAnyone thinking of taking their money out of the financial market altogether in the face of pessimistic forecasts and filling their good old pillow is acting prematurely.
\nBecause it is only partly true that those who risk nothing also lose nothing.
\nOn the one hand, money loses its value due to inflation.
\nOn the other hand, there is nothing to gain. <\/span><\/p>\n

If the past has shown one thing, it is that the financial market moves steadily upwards over a longer period of time and also recovers relatively quickly from a crisis – relatively, if you are prepared to think in terms of investment horizons longer than a few years.
\nSo you need patience.
\nThis does not automatically mean that it will be the same in the future.
\nHowever, if you believe in the market, the companies, the politicians and ultimately the people, “things will continue somehow”. <\/span><\/p>\n

Anyone speculating on high profits in the short term in view of optimistic forecasts should also be warned.
\nThe market has to be beaten first – and the majority of professionals are unable to do this and therefore prefer to rely on proven, long-term investment strategies. <\/p>\n

<\/sml-c2a-download><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Every year, we are eager to see what the financial market has in store. Trade journals and expert portals are full of trends and forecasts. It would be nice if it were so easy to look into the future. Past experience shows that forecasts are almost certainly wrong. So what…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":4183,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2208],"tags":[2429,2567,2211,2212,2388,2480,2466,2479],"class_list":{"0":"post-8793","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-investing-in-the-stock-market","8":"tag-financial-decisions","9":"tag-financial-forecasts","10":"tag-invest-for-the-long-term","11":"tag-invest-smart","12":"tag-investment-decisions","13":"tag-investment-errors","14":"tag-investment-strategy","15":"tag-wrong-investment-decision"},"nelio_content":{"autoShareEndMode":"never","automationSources":{"useCustomSentences":false,"customSentences":[]},"efiAlt":"","efiUrl":"","followers":[],"highlights":[],"isAutoShareEnabled":false,"networkImageIds":[],"permalinkQueryArgs":[],"series":[],"suggestedReferences":[]},"featured_image_urls_v2":{"full":["https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/Smolio-Wissen_Finanzprognosen-2018_Glasskugel_Web.jpg",1236,882,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/Smolio-Wissen_Finanzprognosen-2018_Glasskugel_Web.jpg",315,225,false],"medium":["https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/Smolio-Wissen_Finanzprognosen-2018_Glasskugel_Web.jpg",800,571,false],"medium_large":["https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/Smolio-Wissen_Finanzprognosen-2018_Glasskugel_Web.jpg",768,548,false],"large":["https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/Smolio-Wissen_Finanzprognosen-2018_Glasskugel_Web.jpg",1140,813,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/Smolio-Wissen_Finanzprognosen-2018_Glasskugel_Web.jpg",1236,882,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/Smolio-Wissen_Finanzprognosen-2018_Glasskugel_Web.jpg",1236,882,false],"davenport-blog-thumb":["https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/Smolio-Wissen_Finanzprognosen-2018_Glasskugel_Web.jpg",973,694,false],"davenport-blog-thumb-grid":["https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/Smolio-Wissen_Finanzprognosen-2018_Glasskugel_Web.jpg",504,360,false],"davenport-blog-thumb-widget":["https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/Smolio-Wissen_Finanzprognosen-2018_Glasskugel_Web.jpg",220,157,false],"davenport-blog-thumb-masonry":["https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/Smolio-Wissen_Finanzprognosen-2018_Glasskugel_Web.jpg",360,257,false],"woocommerce_thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/Smolio-Wissen_Finanzprognosen-2018_Glasskugel_Web.jpg",300,214,false],"woocommerce_single":["https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/Smolio-Wissen_Finanzprognosen-2018_Glasskugel_Web.jpg",400,285,false],"woocommerce_gallery_thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/Smolio-Wissen_Finanzprognosen-2018_Glasskugel_Web.jpg",300,214,false]},"post_excerpt_stackable_v2":"

Lesedauer 3 MinutenEvery year, we are eager to see what the financial market has in store. Trade journals and expert portals are full of trends and forecasts. It would be nice if it were so easy to look into the future. Past experience shows that forecasts are almost certainly wrong. So what can you do if you don’t actually know anything? Many people still make resolutions to do more for their own finances in the coming year. In principle, this is always a good idea. The question of smart investment opportunities quickly arises and so it is not surprising that…<\/p>\n","category_list_v2":"Investing in the stock market<\/a>","author_info_v2":{"name":"Sarah","url":"https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/en\/wissen\/author\/sarah\/"},"comments_num_v2":"0 comments","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8793","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8793"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8793\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4183"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8793"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8793"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.smolio.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8793"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}