Last update: 14.01.2018 04:46
Every year, we are eager to see what the financial market has in store. Trade journals and expert portals are full of trends and forecasts.
It would be nice if it were so easy to look into the future.
Past experience shows that forecasts are almost certainly wrong.
So what can you do if you don’t actually know anything?
Many people still make resolutions to do more for their own finances in the coming year.
In principle, this is always a good idea.
The question of smart investment opportunities quickly arises and so it is not surprising that you will find a multitude of opinions, expert advice and visions for the future without having to search for long.
Expectations are high and the idea of making a profit is naturally tempting.
However, as with New Year’s resolutions, things usually turn out differently than expected on the financial market.
Many forecasts turn out to be inaccurate in retrospect.
Some may be lucky.
However, the question arises: how useful are forecasts for one year?
Can useful recommendations for action be derived from them?
The fact remains: We don’t know anything for sure.
A look back
2017 turned out better than expected.
While the mood on the financial market was still rather critical at the end of 2016 and forecasts were quite cautious, last year exceeded many expectations.
We also asked on facebook how the year went financially and, lo and behold, for the majority of 62% it was better than expected.
This does not mean anything for 2018 and does not represent a trend.
All it really shows is that the forecasts have once again (fortunately) not come true.
So, what to do in the upcoming 2018
Compared to last year, the tenor of forecasts and opinions is currently more optimistic.
However, we have already said that this does not necessarily mean anything.
After all, perhaps the current confidence is just the answer to a better-than-expected 2017.
I know that I don’t know anything, or at least that I don’t know everything exactly, still applies.
The first question is: why do you want to change your investments (in the short term)?
Instead of relying on forecasts for a single calendar year, as a successful investor you should think long-term anyway and not “gamble” on short-term developments.
Observe which developments are likely to happen: This refers to macro developments such as interest rate trends and economic developments.
Check whether your personal, long-term asset allocation matches these possible developments.
If yes: stick to it, if no: make adjustments.
No panic, no fear of missing out
A long-term view also saves us from short-term scaremongering and investment stress.
Anyone thinking of taking their money out of the financial market altogether in the face of pessimistic forecasts and filling their good old pillow is acting prematurely.
Because it is only partly true that those who risk nothing also lose nothing.
On the one hand, money loses its value due to inflation.
On the other hand, there is nothing to gain.
If the past has shown one thing, it is that the financial market moves steadily upwards over a longer period of time and also recovers relatively quickly from a crisis – relatively, if you are prepared to think in terms of investment horizons longer than a few years.
So you need patience.
This does not automatically mean that it will be the same in the future.
However, if you believe in the market, the companies, the politicians and ultimately the people, “things will continue somehow”.
Anyone speculating on high profits in the short term in view of optimistic forecasts should also be warned.
The market has to be beaten first – and the majority of professionals are unable to do this and therefore prefer to rely on proven, long-term investment strategies.
